Vinokourov: what's going on?

"Who?" you say. "He's not Andy! Why are you talking about him?!"

Answer, because OGL hasn't done anything much lately, and I feel guilty when I Schpleculate, just in case there is the teeniest weeniest chance that he might get to hear about it, and be cross. Yes, I know it's pretty unlikely, but you never know. And I'd hate to make him cross. Even though Schpleculation is better than nothing at all.....  but I'm trying to be strong, resist the urge, and keep us all up to date with what's going on in cycling these days.

So, Vino. Remember him? First he was going to retire at the end of this season, and become a DS for Astana.

Then the UCI announced a new rule: No former dopers to take up staff positions on cycling teams. He didn't seem to know about it, as he was still talking about retiring.

Then he had that terrible crash at the Tour, and broke his leg right where it joins the pelvis, ouch, nasty: this obviously meant that he was not going to be able to ride again this year, so he announced that he was retiring early... and going into management.  Has he still not heard about this rule?

Then suddenly he changed his tune, announcing that he was going to ride again next year, and explaining it by saying "I didn't want to quit on that note." 

"Aha!" I thought, "someone has finally told him!"  But here's a simple little sum for you - Vino has 230 UCI points, Team Astana have 422, so without him, they would only have 192 points. The team currently sitting 18th in the ProTeam listing, Vacansoleil, have 369.

Do we think that Astana realised that without his points, they wouldn't get UCI pro Team status for 2012?

And Vino would not be able to go into management, anyway.....

... so suddenly he's riding again.

Anyone prepared to make a guess as to what is going to happen next year?

My guess is that Vino will start the year riding with Astana, because they need his points, but will only manage one race. If at all - that was a nasty break. Then he will try to slide into a management role.

Mind you, I notice that on the 1st October the UCI amended clause 1.1.006.2 (the one about no dopers taking on staff positions) (aagh! my soul! my soul!) and it now reads:

However a licence may be granted if all three of the following conditions are fulfilled:

(1) the person concerned committed a violation only once,

(2) the said violation was not sanctioned with an ineligibility for two years or more, and

(3) five years have elapsed between the moment of the violation and the first day of the year for which the licence is granted.

How very interesting! The goalposts are moving again.  So does it let Vino off the hook?

1) Number of violations: he was "done" for blood doping in the Tour of 2007. Most reports say it was only once, the TT day:  so he might be ok for clause 1.

2) What size ban?  Initially, he was only banned for one year. The UCI did complain about it at the time, (shades of Contador) and managed to get an extra year added to the ban. I wonder, does that mean it counts as a one-year ban, or a two-year ban? I'm not sure on that one.

3) How long ago? 2007, +5 = 2012, which means by 2013 he will be cleared, under this clause.

So it is entirely possible that if Vino races next year - even if he never actually competes - then in 2013 he will be cleared to join the staff of Astana, or any other team for that matter.

It's also slightly interesting (I say "slightly" because I don't actually like Vino - he has no eyebrows!- so I'm not really that interested in what happens to him)  that in 2009, when Vino returned to Astana, he said "It's Bruyneel or me".  The report at the time said

"Banned rider Alexandre Vinokourov, whose doping suspension ends on July 24, insisted he will return to the Astana team even if it means its manager, Johan Bruyneel, has to leave the team."

Hmm, does anyone actually enjoy working with Mr Bruyneel?